ESIC University · 2026 Global Leadership Summer Series

CUPRA

Reading the New Map
Day 1 — The Fragmented Map · Geopolitical Risk Blueprint
Team 2 · 5-minute debrief
The company

In one line

  • Spain's flagship carmaker — Martorell, Barcelona — the brand SEAT S.A. is consolidating into
  • Roughly 90% of sales are European: Germany, Spain, the UK, France, Italy
  • Designs and assembles cars in Spain; sources powertrains, battery cells, chips and software upstream
  • Margin = brand premium − input, energy and compliance cost
CUPRA · Geopolitical Risk Blueprint · Day 1
The big idea

The map has changed

From globalisation to interdependence — connection is now managed for security, not efficiency. Three forces decide everything.

Resilience

Can CUPRA survive a chip or battery-cell shock — without the line stopping?

Sovereignty

Who controls its battery cells, its chips, and its connected-car data?

Alignment

EU or China? For a carmaker built in both, neutrality is now costly.

CUPRA · Geopolitical Risk Blueprint · Day 1
The risk picture

Six-dimension first pass

Supply-chain fragility
0/5
Regulatory divergence
0/5
Climate-policy exposure
0/5
Political-alliance risk
0/5
Digital-sovereignty conflict
0/5
Reputational risk
0/5
1 = negligible · 5 = critical  |  supply chain & regulation weigh heaviest
Geography is back

The chokepoint that decides us

~90%
of advanced chips are made in Taiwan — and ~99% of the chips that train AI. Friday's crisis trigger.
~75%
of refined battery minerals the EV pivot needs are processed in China.
1
shock can halt the line. The CUPRA Tavascan is itself assembled in China.
CUPRA · Geopolitical Risk Blueprint · Day 1
Power nodes

Who we depend on

EU
Home market and rule-setter: the 2035 ban, CBAM, type-approval, ~90% of sales.
High
China
Cells, refined minerals, the Tavascan plant — and the rising rival (BYD). Supplier and competitor.
High
Gulf
Indirect: oil and energy prices feed input and logistics cost.
Med
ASEAN · India
Optionality only today — a future hedge away from China.
Low
CUPRA · Geopolitical Risk Blueprint · Day 1
Trade instruments

The one most able to break us

EV import tariffs + EU battery local-content rules vs a China-built Tavascan and China-sourced cells.

THE DANGER

If CUPRA keeps building in China, the same EU rule that protects Europe turns straight into a cost — tariffs and lost local-content credit on its own EV.

→

THE ADVANTAGE

If CUPRA makes its batteries in Spain instead (the new PowerCo plant in Sagunto, Valencia), that same rule becomes a moat that keeps cheaper rivals out.

Also gating us: CBAM — carbon EU AI Act — driver-assist CSDDD — mineral due-diligence
CUPRA · Geopolitical Risk Blueprint · Day 1
Monday takeaway

The old map is gone. CUPRA survives on resilience, sovereignty and alignment.

  • Its single biggest risk is a fragile, foreign-controlled supply chain
  • The fix and the moat are the same move: bring the critical node home
The question we answer by Friday
How should CUPRA sequence its EV transition and localise its most fragile node?
CUPRA · Geopolitical Risk Blueprint · ESIC 2026 · Team 2